The Betfair Tennis Trader

Cleaning up without getting out of my boxer shorts.

Trading Out

I have had a comment asking me about my proposal that there are few trades which can not be traded out to profit (within reason). Interestingly enough the commentor also asked about betting banks and asked if I used a 3% or 1% bank. Lets deal with all of this.

First of all the bank. Once I learned to trade without losing money, which was just before I learnt how to make money one thing happened right away. I can use a much bigger portion of my bank per trade. My trading bank is not huge. In a dire emergency it could be re deposited.

But I am bringing in 40% of bank per day pretty much every day without undue stress or hard work. Small bets as a portion of bank are a hangover from a gambling mentality where we expect to lose really. At least deep down we do. So we spread our bets thinly. It never works. Either our bank never builds up, or we blow what we have. I simply do not believe that there is any such thing as professional gambling. There may be exceptional cases but not for ordinary punters. But as a trader as an example if I had 200 pts, I would enter a 100 point trade quite happily.

But here is the thing. I would not risk a 100 pts on a trade. That is the difference. So in all my trades I know the downside, the profit potential and the emergency exit. Simply put as long as I have green on the short price as the match comes to a close I win. It doesn’t matter what the red is. I don’t intend to pay it. If the match flip flops then so do I. I simply reverse my position. So the important thing is to always have enough cash available to trade out. But do the maths. The amount you need spare depends on the odds of the trade u just entered.

Oddly for a trader my memory is shocking. But yesterday in play I laid a player at 1.07. I now can’t remember the name as I write this lol. A few minutes later I traded out at 1.48. Do the math. See the risk? See the profit? And see the exit if needed? It’s all there in the numbers. But it is very erroneous thinking to simply assume that further betting is going to increase your liabilities. It need not do. It can reduce them. Same with laying.

In summary trading is not about trying to predict winners. It is about transferring money to the winning side. Do comment and ask questions if you are interested.

Traders Test
Q1. You have 100 pts in yr account. You back with yr full 100 pt bank at 1.5. You then need to change course. How much money do you still have available to back the opposing player?

May 26, 2009 - Posted by | 1, Betfair Tennis Trading | , , , ,

11 Comments »

  1. interesting post… of course if you lay a player at 1.07( was it the andreev game?) you have little liability.

    Well i dont know if it is a good method to trade with 50% of your bank. Yesterday i was trading at the Belluci vs. Arguello game and decided to back belluci to win his serve because it was the end of the set. Well after my bet was matched i realised that something wrong is going on, ok he lost his serve but the odds went up to 2.32 and still moving up… the odds of arguello were after 15sec at 1.01 ok at this point it was clear that belluci retired – i lost my bet ( but only 3% of my bank this you can trade in other matches away) but you would lose 50% of your bank – wouldnt you be broken?

    Do you think that there is a huge difference between a swing trader like you and a serve/ point trader?
    What is a swing trader in your opinion: Do you chose a game, looking at the stats, make you desicion who is gonna to win the game and then back or lay the player before the game – in play waiting the player to break and trade out… ok you will catch your ticks when the player break but if not you have to cut your loses – in my opinion the only advantage is that one trade per game is enough to get you 10% or 30% profit if you you are on the right side.

    A serve trader – has to make more trades (back – lay, lay- back etc) to get this 10% or 30% profit because he only trades the serves and get not more than max.20 ticks per trade – but if a trade goes wrong he loses less ticks than a swing trader… so both parts have his advantages but why do you prefer to be a swing trader?
    Isnt the internet connection important for you as a swing trader?

    Q1: What do you mean “You then need to change course” – sorry my english is not the best ;( – to trade out because the player you backed is loosing now and you want to have a green screen on the other one? how are the lay odds and the odds of the opposit player?

    good luck trading

    paul

    Comment by paul | May 26, 2009 | Reply

  2. I said Newtons First Law could not be broken (nor his other laws lol). You are called a scalper. Trying to take a lot of little profits quickly. Its a different style. I am patient. Like a fisher man. When odds move out of line I enter the trade. Most gamblers panic and market swings too much for little things. Swing traders want big moves but just a few. Maybe 2/3 in match. Maybe one. Maybe no bet.

    Comment by thetennistrader | May 26, 2009 | Reply

    • so today is a rainy day – all games suspended… but how long?
      are you trading with live pics or only use the livescores?

      Comment by paul | May 26, 2009 | Reply

  3. i made my daily money on woz already lol
    but i dont have pics
    i dont like them lol
    i always forget they are delayed and get confused. i follow the odds. in particular i know where the bulk of money has been matched so i can draw my line.

    Comment by thetennistrader | May 26, 2009 | Reply

    • nice – well done: layed Troicki and backed Gicquel?

      Comment by paul | May 26, 2009 | Reply

  4. i am funny like this
    i only trade one match at a time.
    concentration of force is the first principle of war lol.

    Comment by thetennistrader | May 26, 2009 | Reply

  5. I was trying this strategy yesterday but I failed 😦

    I had some red on Devilder, the score was 2-1 and Devilder was comfortably leading 4-1 in the 4th set and about to serve. He was trading at 1.07. I thought he was going to win so I backed him for 17pts so that I no longer have any red on him. Well, then all of a sudden Wawrinka breaks back and wins the set. If memory serves me well Wawrinka’s price was about 1.5. I could have changed course and backed him leaving me with a 50pts liability on Devilder. In the end Wawrinka won.

    But what if Devilder broke in the final set? I would have to change course again but I wouldn’t have enough money (my bank is 100pts) to do that.

    What would you have done?

    Comment by Peter | May 26, 2009 | Reply

  6. lol
    in that match they both traded at well above evens above 10 i think for both players….but my memory is shocking. but a short price bet near the finish is very difficult to get out of if it goes wrong. i just dont do them. i need time on my side, volatilty, and gearing. laying at 1.07 early is a completely different animal to backing at 1.07 late in the match. lol.
    and if the bank is too short to re back u have to lay and take the loss somewhere. its all the same. but the liability on the bet should be nowhere near the full bank lol.
    i think that you are not sure if u want to gamble or to trade?

    Comment by thetennistrader | May 26, 2009 | Reply

  7. Okay, no more backing at short odds late in the match, lesson learned. I did it because your post about not losing was ringing in my ears and Devilder had a comfortable lead, Wawrinka looked poor and in 93% of the time this woudln’t have happened.

    At what point do you look to switch sides?

    Comment by Peter | May 26, 2009 | Reply

  8. be careful. my post said *within the bounds of liquidity* if u havent got time, or bling or a plan, or there is no money in the market its no good. its like flying safely. and 1.07 bet near the end has no margin for error at all. and the risk reward ratio was crazy. we just took czink. one set down. came back to 1-1. more green. i mean plenty all round.

    tennis is a funny sport. we always know who the winner is going to be. the one at odds on lol. if u need to flip flop best to start near to evens. do some figures on a pad. eg bet at 1.5 is going wrong. bet oppo at 60 points at 2.4. then adjust from there. in yr 1.07 fiasco u left everything too late. i put stop losses in unmatched if i can.

    Comment by thetennistrader | May 26, 2009 | Reply

  9. That’s quite interesting lol.

    Comment by Betfair Trader | December 28, 2011 | Reply


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