The Betfair Tennis Trader

Cleaning up without getting out of my boxer shorts.

A day in the life of a tennis trader

A couple of guys asked me to write about my life lol. Not sure that is a good idea. It doesn’t matter what my life is like. The question is what would yours be like if you could earn the money you needed in a few hours a day? Nor does it matter how much I make. What can you make?

But every since I was a kid I understood compound interest. And simply by taking 5% per match anyone can build a workable bank and achieve a great lifestyle. I often set my trades up to net 10%. That allows a good margin for error for trade outs and unexpected events. My key skills really are keeping my losses down to almost zero and the patience and discipline to be satisfied with small regular stress free returns. Being able to plan and implement exit routes from bad trades is absolutely mission critical. Once I stopped losing money i started earning money !

But the only way to find out what it is like is to have a go. Good luck.

June 4, 2009 Posted by | 1 | 12 Comments

Tennis Trading Tip #2

Why no bet is often the best bet

Trading is technically speaking very simple. In fact it is ridiculously easy to make a lot of money. Some people though find it extremely difficult to get the hang of. The reasons are almost always emotional lol. In particular a lack of patience. Some people seem possessed of an unquenchable thirst to be in the market doing something all the time. The thing is we need to match the type of trades we want to do with the circumstances in which to do them. If we want to be swing traders who back strong favorites when they get behind then that is what we do. We just wait for those. And they keep coming. But it is no good getting in from work, logging in, getting restless and just diving into the first thing you see because you are restless. The suicidal urge just to get into the market because of boredom or impatience is a lethal personal characteristic. If you suffer from this you need to get it under control or quit trading.

Thats it. Patience. A Zen like calm. It’s like fishing. Just wait. Then wait some more.You can train yourself into this type of patience. Each time you do it you become stronger. And once you feel the joy and benefit of receiving far higher odds than everybody else you find waiting becomes second nature. Then you are a Trading Master!

May 29, 2009 Posted by | Betfair Tennis Trading, gambling | , , , | 6 Comments

Tennis Trading Tip #1

Learning how to get out of poor positions is even more important than learning how to make money. Master the former and the money follows automagically

Lets not get into traders versus gamblers. We all want to make money in the sport. But many of our difficulties in learning how to trade have their roots in our gambling psycholgy. Not only that but everything we learnt about odds, value and markets is reversed in play. Thus faced with a poor situation many new comers freeze or panic. This post is meant to help you get over that.

Training, practise and maths is the key. For every trade we need to know the exit possibilities if it goes pear shaped. These need study or figuring out on a pad in relaxed moments. In play the stress can make it impossible to think clearly.

Example. Lets say you plunged on a cert lol like Safin early doors at 1.5. Some time later it occurred to you that far from winning 50 you were quite likely to lose 100. You now need to reverse course. The main skill is to understand that if you go red it does not mean that you are going to pay at the end of the match. There is still time on our side. Once you recognise that it is far easier to adapt the mindset to change tack. So our Safin bet. What to do when he is behind? Easy. Lay 75 at 2.0. But do it early. You now have 25 red on both sides.

Instead of staring at 100 loss you are looking at 25 loss. Furthermore if 100 was your full bank you still have 75 to play with. Back the winner with 75 at anything over 1.33 and you are home free. Its simple. It just about moving money from below to above the line.

Remember as long as your green is on the winner when the match ends – you win! Where the red or green was a minute earlier or 4 sets earlier makes no difference. We get settled at the end of the match. Not in play. Thank God. LOL.

May 28, 2009 Posted by | Betfair Tennis Trading, gambling, Tennis Trading Strategy. | , , , | 4 Comments

Tennis Trading 27 May Roland Garros

Lol. Victoria Azarenka was our first trade of the day and delivered massively. A strong favorite at about 1.05 in the tissue she was broken in the first set and moved out to omg 1.58 and upwards. She peaked briefly at 1.8. We traders filled up and waited for the break back. She is trading as I write at 1.08. Now. Just imagine. You are a punter. And you backed aza at 1.05. We are sitting on 40 percent profits. How much have you got?

Our second trade was Murray. Hopeless. Drifted all morning from 1.1 to any price. Massive profits for layers all round. Over 300% easily.

May 27, 2009 Posted by | Betfair Tennis Trading, gambling, Tennis Trading Strategy. | 1 Comment

Trading Out

I have had a comment asking me about my proposal that there are few trades which can not be traded out to profit (within reason). Interestingly enough the commentor also asked about betting banks and asked if I used a 3% or 1% bank. Lets deal with all of this.

First of all the bank. Once I learned to trade without losing money, which was just before I learnt how to make money one thing happened right away. I can use a much bigger portion of my bank per trade. My trading bank is not huge. In a dire emergency it could be re deposited.

But I am bringing in 40% of bank per day pretty much every day without undue stress or hard work. Small bets as a portion of bank are a hangover from a gambling mentality where we expect to lose really. At least deep down we do. So we spread our bets thinly. It never works. Either our bank never builds up, or we blow what we have. I simply do not believe that there is any such thing as professional gambling. There may be exceptional cases but not for ordinary punters. But as a trader as an example if I had 200 pts, I would enter a 100 point trade quite happily.

But here is the thing. I would not risk a 100 pts on a trade. That is the difference. So in all my trades I know the downside, the profit potential and the emergency exit. Simply put as long as I have green on the short price as the match comes to a close I win. It doesn’t matter what the red is. I don’t intend to pay it. If the match flip flops then so do I. I simply reverse my position. So the important thing is to always have enough cash available to trade out. But do the maths. The amount you need spare depends on the odds of the trade u just entered.

Oddly for a trader my memory is shocking. But yesterday in play I laid a player at 1.07. I now can’t remember the name as I write this lol. A few minutes later I traded out at 1.48. Do the math. See the risk? See the profit? And see the exit if needed? It’s all there in the numbers. But it is very erroneous thinking to simply assume that further betting is going to increase your liabilities. It need not do. It can reduce them. Same with laying.

In summary trading is not about trying to predict winners. It is about transferring money to the winning side. Do comment and ask questions if you are interested.

Traders Test
Q1. You have 100 pts in yr account. You back with yr full 100 pt bank at 1.5. You then need to change course. How much money do you still have available to back the opposing player?

May 26, 2009 Posted by | 1, Betfair Tennis Trading | , , , , | 11 Comments

Betfair Tennis Trade #3

Quiet day with not much on before the French. Lesson for the day: Odds. lol. I never take a price offered. Waiting to be matched can allow us time and space to think and see if the thing is going in our favour. Then I enter my trade on any type of minor set back for the player I want to back or vice versa on the lay. This tactic is at the root of nearly all my profits. Picking the winner is not difficult part way through a match. The art is to get in at advantageous odds and cream of 10% every single time by entering the trade on a spike.

Which brings me to todays trade in the Warsaw Open. Bondarenko is at 1.21 and Dulgheru at 5.6. A punter would plunge straight on to the very strongly fancied Bonarenko. Not me. Dulgheru is good, tough, ambitious and determined and conditions suit her. Boradenko is in my view not likely to win today in 2 sets. I am laying the 2-0 (1.62) and taking profits as they come. Alona only needs to get in temporary trouble in one set and we are right on the money.

Less than four games gone and the 2-0 set lay on Bordarenko is gyrating wildly. I exited at 2.2 for a 100% profit.

Update Second Set
Lay Bondarenko at 1.33

RESULT: The strongly fancied Bondie in to 1.25 at one point was duly annihilated to tears and drama as predicted here. Good win with two clearly defined and indicated trades. LMAO.

May 23, 2009 Posted by | Betfair Tennis Trading, gambling | , , , , | 1 Comment

Betfair Daily Tennis Trade #2

Not too heavy today. With the French Open days away anything can happen.
But for trading purposes I am backing Bondarenko (1.24) in Warsaw and laying Youzhny in the Austrian Open (1.42).
Ready to trade out or flip flop as always lol.

Update #1:
Youzhny is hitting 1.9 already. I have greened up.

Update #2
In betting terms its all over for Youzhny facing first set loss. Layers can close out at 2.3 for a mighty profit of 220%.

RESULTS: Both winners. Youzhny tanked as expected for the lay. Bondarenko won in two sets.n

May 22, 2009 Posted by | Betfair Tennis Trading | , , | 1 Comment

Tennis trade of the day #1

This is my first published trade of the day lol. In the Warsaw Open I am laying Sharapova at 1.72 in her match with Bondarenko. Maria is going to struggle in this match and is almost bound to drift higher at some stage for a classic lay to back trade. Profit target: 30%.
Furthermore I am expecting good volatility and liquidity in the first set and I am looking to trade at about 1.6 to 1.8. Fill your boots.
A lot of very respected opinion is going the other way on this match and lumping Sharapova to win which is going to increase the volatilty . I am ready to adjust and trade out if necessary.
Update at 10.05.
Sharapova is drifting already. She is out to 1.8 for an 11 percent profit!. And there is 2 hours before the match . LMAO.

RESULT: Stunning loss in 2 sets for Sharapova. Layers who took my advice cleaned up.

May 21, 2009 Posted by | Betfair Tennis Trading, gambling, laying | 1 Comment

Is Adam Heathcote the most successful Betfair trader on the planet?

Adam Heathcote has a great reputation. He is a young dude from the UK and has (according to his blog) achieved the enviable feat of turning 6k into 150k in just a few short months by using the Betfair beiing exchange. Wow. What we all want to know is: How does he do it. I did comment on his blog but he didn’t answer yet. I am going to be following Adam and his blog closely. Very closely.

May 20, 2009 Posted by | Betfair, gambling | 4 Comments

A million bucks in 10 days!

Here we examine how the magic of compound interest can turn a modest stake into serious mega bucks virtually overnight.

mercIf you invest a hundred unit stake at Betfair (dollars, pounds or euros) what might you achieve? LOL. Just firing up my open office spread sheet I see that if a person achieves a modest 25% return per trade than they reach the magic 1 million mark in 42 trades. Tennis matches return 25% quite regularly and 5 to 10 matches can be traded per day quite easily. In 50 trades they have omg – over 7 million in cash! How cool is that? Must tweak my trading techniques a bit!

Seriously though this does show the importance of having a financial blueprint at the heart of your trading strategy. Why not write yours down and pin it up by your computer? Something like”My strategy gives me 10 percent of bank per trade and I do 5 trades a day”. If you are not achieving it start working on your technique. And work on those numbers till they do work for you. Good luck.

May 19, 2009 Posted by | Betfair Tennis Trading, gambling | 3 Comments